The Bottom Line: A Smart Play

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One of the more surprising fight announcements of 2022 came when the MMA world learned that Petr Yan would seek to rebound from a split decision title loss to Aljamain Sterling by taking on The Sugar Show, popular rising star Sean O’Malley, at UFC 280 this Saturday in the United Arab Emirates. Yan has fought a former Ultimate Fighting Championship titleholder or title challenger in each of his last five fights, while O’Malley for the most part has been carefully matched against lighter competition in the Octagon. The latter’s toughest fights to this point were Pedro Munhoz, who had lost four of his last five, and Marlon Vera, whose rise to prominence largely came after he took on O’Malley. This is one of the biggest steps up in competition in a long time for a fighter as heavily promoted as O’Malley.

Many have argued that taking this fight is a mistake by O’Malley and his camp. Oddsmakers and bettors would seem to validate this perspective, as Yan is a 3-1 favorite. Much more marketable emerging stars are usually not put into fights with less marketable top contenders strongly favored to beat them. If Yan wins, it will be a step back for O’Malley, and it seems unlikely fans will be clamoring to see the gruff and charisma-destitute Russian fighting for the title again. It is thus fair to be skeptical of the matchmaking.

While on the surface Yan-O’Malley might seem an odd choice for the card, there’s actually plenty of reason to do this fight now. To begin with, O’Malley has already been groomed for stardom for a long period of time. His memorable appearance on the second ever episode of Dana White’s Contender Series is now over five years ago. He’s soon to turn 28. Whether or not he’s ready for the elite of his division, it’s about time to find out.

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There’s also something to be said for having a fighter take on low- to mid-level opponents for a while before jumping into the top mix. The UFC right now has a large and varied roster. There are plenty of eminently beatable opponents at the bottom of each division for a highly skilled young talent, and there are likewise many major challenges for even the best of the best in pretty much every weight class. The easiest place to get lost is right in the middle, where, particularly in the deep weight classes at 135 through 170 pounds, there are dozens of fighters who aren’t even recognized for just how good they are.

If you’re a fighter with superstar potential like O’Malley, you can rack up wins against the lower levels of the division and you can build your rep in a hurry by picking up wins against the top. In the middle is where you can end up trading wins back and forth without building up much notoriety. Ask someone like Beneil Dariush, a man who is also fighting at UFC 280. Dariush has been fighting world-class opponents in the UFC for eight years now, but because he’s constantly fighting opponents who are somewhere between No. 5 and No. 25 in his ridiculously loaded division, winning most but losing some, the average UFC fan doesn’t even appreciate him as a special talent.

O’Malley, by contrast, is getting the opportunity to immediately stake his claim to big fights. Yes, he has to beat an uncompromising tank of an opponent, but that’s the nature of being a world-class fighter. Even if he loses in a competitive fight, it’s easier to justify putting him back in with a top fighter where he has another chance to insert himself into the elite mix. That’s a better place to be than fighting opponents who are ranked a little lower, are still extremely dangerous and who offer both greater risks in losing and lesser rewards in winning.

One final factor that makes this a smart play for O’Malley? While Yan has proven himself at a much higher level than O’Malley, it’s a sneaky good matchup for the MMA Lab standout stylistically. O’Malley likes to fight at range, utilizing his length and athleticism. Yan, with his compact bruising style, is a high-end version of the sort of fighter O’Malley likes to fight. Yan arguably plays into O’Malley’s strengths more than any of the other top fighters in the division. That isn’t to say the odds are off in installing Yan as the favorite, just that if O’Malley is ready to fight at the top level, an opponent like the Russian is more up his alley than other opponents.

It’s easy to second guess any decision if it ends up not paying off, but the showdown with Yan makes a lot more sense for O’Malley than it might at first blush. The Sugar Show has been in different time slots long enough, and the UFC needs to see if he’s ready for prime time.