The Bottom Line: Trouble in Paradise

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If you’d like to see the best heavyweight in the world continue to defend his title against the most capable challengers for the foreseeable future, it’s hard not to be pessimistic these days. The dispute between heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou and Ultimate Fighting Championship management appears intractable. Both sides are far apart, and even more importantly, they’re dug in and not moving. The pettiness of UFC President Dana White not putting the championship around Ngannou’s waist after he defeated Ciryl Gane in the UFC 270 main event on Saturday spoke to the acrimony between the sides. It’s difficult to envision that resolving itself anytime soon.

The maddening facet of the dispute is that in the medium- to long-term each side benefits from preserving its relationship with the other. Ngannou is not only the best heavyweight in the world but an exciting knockout artist who fits the mold of the type of fighter the UFC would love to have at the top of any division. Moreover, a fight between Ngannou and Jon Jones would be a box-office bonanza if the UFC put it together. Even if that weren’t the case, the UFC does not want its champions leaving the company. That’s why the UFC has its champion’s clause in the first place.

Two decades back, UFC champions left the company for more lucrative options elsewhere on a regular basis. The promotion long ago stopped that harmful trend that devalued its titles, depleted its roster and made it look weak to its fans. Losing Ngannou in the prime of his career would not only be an actual defeat and a symbolic defeat for the company, but it would set an undesirable precedent for other disgruntled fighters to consider.

Ngannou and his management may be of the view that he’s better off without the UFC, but if they do, that’s a shortsighted belief. Ngannou can clearly make significantly more money for a one-off boxing match with Tyson Fury right now, which is why he is angling for that bout. However, that’s likely to be a one-off payday. Unlike Conor McGregor, who, as a larger-than-life personality, likely would have continued to draw for a boxing match against Manny Pacquiao even after losing decisively to Floyd Mayweather, Ngannou doesn’t have the innate star power to continue to headline pay-per-view boxing events if he loses his first. Tyron Woodley-Jake Paul 2 struggling mightily compared to their first bout is instructive.

If Ngannou loses to Fury, as is highly likely, his next move will be to return to his home in MMA. For all the criticisms of UFC fighter pay and the nature of UFC contracts, it still remains by far the most lucrative option for top-level MMA fighters because of the ability to share in pay-per-view returns. There also aren’t the marketable heavyweight opponents available outside the UFC for Ngannou that there were 14 years ago when Fedor Emelianenko headlined pay-per-views against Tim Sylvia and Andrei Arlovski. Ngannou is in a very strong position right now, but over the next five years of his career, he is much better off working with UFC for at least some fights than fully moving on.

If both sides are better off working with the other, how can the current impasse be resolved without protracted litigation? The most feasible step forward either party can take in the interest of reaching a mutually beneficial agreement would be for the UFC to compromise and allow Ngannou to take one boxing bout as part of a new contract to return to the UFC afterwards.

It’s understandable that the UFC would not be wild about such an arrangement. It doesn’t want its champions to regularly lobby to fight to boxers, both because of the message it sends about pay and because the MMA fighters are likely to lose to the boxers, making MMA look bad in the process. Ngannou is also highly unlikely to cut the UFC in on the returns the way McGregor did in order to facilitate his bout with Mayweather. It’s not ideal for the UFC, which is why there was evident frustration that Ngannou beat Gane. It’s also not guaranteed to lead to a broader agreement. However, it is the best hope to avert a messy breakup that both parties—and fans—end up lamenting.

Ngannou has made it clear that being able to do a boxing match with Fury is at the forefront of his mind when it comes to contract negotiations. There’s too much money for him to resist, and it would be naïve for UFC to think at this point that he’s going to give in. The UFC can’t allow the previous belief that it could avoid that affect the present reality that it cannot. The UFC acquiescing on the point would make it much easier for the parties to come to agreement on other terms. Locking up Ngannou to a new contract after a boxing bout would also allow the company to capitalize on the added notoriety that would come for Ngannou from boxing.

The alternative for the UFC is unpleasant. A champion leaving without losing his title in the Octagon would undermine the championship and make it harder to draw interest for heavyweight title bouts in the years to come. Ngannou might have to wait longer to box, but the eventual bout would be accompanied by copious amounts of negative publicity, with “The Predator” describing his departure from the UFC in acrimonious terms. Between then and now, the impasse between the two parties will continue to fuel discussion about fighter pay and the nature of UFC contracts. Not to mention, the UFC would lose access to the top heavyweight in the world. The UFC’s best course towards avoiding all that is restart negotiations with the understanding that Ngannou gets to box.