UFC 283 Beforemath: Controlled Chaos and Time Dilation

This weekend we will be treated to the first Ultimate Fighting Championship pay-per view-event of 2023. UFC 283 is headlined by two title fights, and while Glover Teixeira and Jamahal Hill will meet for the vacant light heavyweight belt in the main event, the more interesting fight is Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno facing off for the fourth time in a title fight; a UFC first.

Traditionally in Beforemath, we look at each individual fighter’s skills as they compare to those of their opponent, in order to piece together a picture of what could happen and how each fighter could carve out a path to victory. For UFC 283, however, I want to examine the Figueiredo-Moreno series as a whole. We did something similar with the Israel Adesanya-Alex Pereira matchup and much of that came to fruition. But today we are looking exclusively at Figueiredo and Moreno. I hope you like flyweights.

Figueiredo vs. Moreno 1: Our Baseline

At UFC 256, in December of 2020, Figueiredo was set to face off with a young and talented Moreno who was on a huge career resurgence—if there is such a thing at that age. Figueiredo, whose only struggle in his run to the title had been against the scale, took the world by storm when he dismantled Joseph Benavidez, flyweight’s perpetual No. 2, but missed weight. Eventually he made weight, won the vacant title in an even more dominant rematch with Benavidez, then defended against Alex Perez. Next, he planned to demolish the young Mexican who had been cut from the UFC just two years earlier.

For his part, Moreno had been on a tear since returning to the UFC. His lone blemish was a draw with Askar Askarov, one of the toughest fighters in the division. He then put on fantastic performances against Kai Kara-France, Jussier Formiga and Brandon Royval. Moreno was simply the next in line for Figueiredo, but he planned on making the most of his opportunity and thus the greatest rivalry in UFC flyweight history was born.

The first fight between Moreno and Figueiredo gives us the baseline of what this matchup brings to the table. From the jump, we saw that the grappling exchanges between Figueiredo and Moreno will be insanely fun. Both fighters are incredibly skilled on the ground, and keeping the opposition there will be incredibly tough.

Looking at the defensive grappling of Moreno, we see that holding him down is a tall order for anyone. In Fig. 1, Figueiredo has Moreno down and is looking to pass guard. Moreno will (1) hook his left leg around Figueiredo’s right, then use his right hand to grip Figueiredo’s left ankle. (2) Once hooked, Moreno will pull both to him as he pushes off with his free leg against the midsection of Figueiredo. The sweep works (3) as Moreno is able to keep Figueiredo off of him and get up and out of harm’s way.

The first fight was mainly dictated by Figueiredo’s pace and how he lulled Moreno into fighting in the pocket where he thrives. Moreno would often get caught with huge shots to the body and head. It’s very often in this series that Figueiredo aims to get Moreno in the pocket and bets on his power to win him those exchanges.

In Fig. 2, we see Moreno (1) throwing a wide left hook seen a mile away by Figueiredo. Figueiredo dips the hook and uses the overextension of Moreno to his right to land a left hook. With Moreno now exposed on his left side, Figueiredo will (2) fire a right hook to the body, a crippling blow. (3) Figueiredo once again mixes it up and throws the left hook up high and lands square on the jaw of Moreno which can be seen in Fig. 4. Figueiredo will want more blows in the pocket and will (5) look for a right hook up high. Moreno will finally manage to get behind his shoulder and escape the pocket where he’s getting battered up.

Moreno wasn’t completely helpless in the pocket. There were a few times he would catch Figueiredo admiring his own punches and Moreno, using his speed, would catch Figueiredo, causing him to either fire back or turn and run. In fact, both fighters worked the body heavily in the first fight. Both Figueiredo and Moreno made it a point to attack the cardio of the other fighter, hoping to gain an advantage.

In the third round, unfortunately, Figueiredo landed a massive kick to the groin of Moreno that would cost him the win and ultimately extend the series to the fourth fight we are getting this weekend. Moreno was left writhing and coughing on the ground and Figueiredo justifiably lost a point, leading to a majority draw in a fight he had otherwise been winning.

The point deduction brought out a new sense of urgency from Figueiredo, though. We saw the champ dig deep and pull out all the stops to try and ensure he didn’t lose the title on a lost point.

To secure a round, Figueiredo would look for a takedown and control on the ground. With Moreno looking to sweep, Figueiredo will (1) spin the legs of Moreno away from the fence and look to prevent any further scramble. But in the turning, (2) Moreno will have the option to use the fence directly above his head and can use that to scramble or use his feet to keep Figueiredo from securing a position as he had done earlier. Instead, Figueiredo will grab the hips of Moreno and (3) stack Moreno up and away from the fence all while keeping his legs away from the leverage points and give him any option to sweep.

The grappling would be important as well for Figueiredo in the first fight. Securing late takedowns, despite Moreno’s insane ability to create scrambles and get up without incurring too much damage, would be the x-factor for Figueiredo keeping the title.

Later in the fight, exhaustion would set in for both men. But it would be Figueiredo that would land more of the significant blows. In figure 4, we see Moreno (1) throw a lazy jab that Figueiredo will slip to his left. (2) The slip and jab over extension will give Figgy the opening for the uppercut. Once the uppercut has landed clean, (3) Figueiredo will look for more as Moreno is still hanging around in the pocket this late in the fight not having learned from the other three rounds. The left hook will (4) land clean and Moreno will finally exit.

Another of Figueiredo’s characteristic fighting quirks is the fact that he doesn’t normally keep his hands up. He walks at someone like the Terminator T-1000 and relies on head movement as his primary method of defense, while using that same head movement to create openings to land his own big blows.

Figueiredo vs. Moreno 2: A New King Emerges

While their first fight ended in a majority draw, I couldn’t help but feel Moreno had lost. He took more damage and if it hadn’t been for the point deduction, he would have lost. I had one burning question I needed answered going into the rematch: How would Moreno deal with Figueiredo in the pocket, a place where he was the most vulnerable? At UFC 263 in June of 2021, Moreno answered that question with authority. Having had 25 minutes to understand the controlled chaos Figueiredo brings to the cage, Moreno made adjustments that would end in him getting the win and taking the belt home to Mexico.

After dealing the relentless pressure Figueiredo brought to the first fight, Moreno set out to punish the champ for that tactic. In response to Figueiredo’s pursuit, Moreno attacked the body. The jab and lead hook to the body would be Moreno’s bread and butter. Figueiredo always has a tough weight cut; working the body sapped further energy away and let Moreno utilize his speed advantage to even greater effect.

Moreno also mixed up his shot selection. In the first fight, Moreno was caught in a pattern of going lick-for-lick and looking for the knockout. In the second fight he became more methodical, changing levels to keep Figueiredo guessing and keeping his head off the center line.

Moreno also used his more diverse shot selection to open up big punches and make Figueiredo second-guess staying in the pocket. (1) To start off a lot of these exchanges, Moreno would show the standard jab and Figueiredo would reach to block the path and hand-fight. (2) Moreno would then go low with a jab to the body. This got Figueiredo to lower his hands, which would then (3) open up the lead hook up high for Moreno to land the punches of consequence.

With the work to the body, Moreno also benefited from the newly earned hesitancy to come forward by Figueiredo. In the first fight, Moreno struggled with the advance and fought off his back foot for most of the fight. The second fight saw Moreno more comfortable to stand his ground wherever he decided the fight would go. This was directly due to the body work. Figueiredo was tiring fast and any more work to the body would exacerbate that even further: He had to fight Moreno’s fight.

When Figueiredo was forced to lead the dance, Moreno had answers there too. Leading into this camp, it was apparent that Moreno made sure to do work in the pocket in anticipation for what Figueiredo would bring. Figueiredo relied on the step-in elbow often in the first fight and attempted to do so in the second. (1) But when Figueiredo would step in and throw the elbow, Moreno would slip to the outside and (2) land his own elbow strike.

Forced to lead the dance, Figueiredo relied on the blitz rush and step-in elbows that had always served him well in the past, including against Moreno in their first fight. But with Moreno more patient, that didn’t work so well anymore. We saw a gameplan of avoidance taken by Moreno, while giving the appearance that he was in control, taking Figueiredo out of his comfort zone. Moreno circled away from the power hand of Figueiredo regardless of Figueiredo being in southpaw or orthodox. He also stood in the center of the cage as Figueiredo circled and dared Figueiredo to step in all while the looming threat of the body shot gripped the mind of the champion.

Finally, Moreno needed to get the fight to a spot where he could finish and keep Figueiredo there. In the first fight, and even in the second, both Moreno and Figueiredo would attempt to wrestle and inflict some extra damage, with marginal success. While takedowns did save Figueiredo in the first fight, Moreno managed to mitigate any damage coming his way from the disadvantageous position. The same applied in the second fight to Figueiredo who worked hard to elevate, utilizing several butterfly sweeps to keep Moreno from getting hooks in and landing anything of significance.

In the finishing sequence, Moreno’s nuances paid off. Figueiredo was tired and the body lock takedown was given too easily. With how much more Moreno had in the gas tank, taking the back was easy and he wasted no time getting the figure-four body lock on and eventually sunk in the rear-naked choke to which Figueiredo would ultimately tap.

Figueiredo vs. Moreno 3: Falling Apart to Halftime

After Moreno won the belt, it seemed as if Mexico-mania had begun and “The Assassin Baby” was destined to become the first true breakout flyweight star. I took some time to think about the former champ and how he might change his approach in the third fight to win his title back. It came down to one glaring question: Can Figueiredo lead the dance?

To answer that question, Figueiredo met Moreno again last January at UFC 270. The third fight would not be as wild and hectic as the first two, which was by design from Figueiredo. In the second fight, Moreno had dared his opponent to lead and refused to fight Figueiredo’s fight, and Figueiredo had crashed and burned. The third fight’s theme would be Figueiredo slowing things down and impairing the mobility of the fast-moving Moreno.

In the second fight, we saw Moreno dare Figueiredo to be a pocket fighter and punished him for it. In between the second and third fights, Figueiredo would work on that problem. In the third fight, Figueiredo looked to draw out attacks and capitalized on Moreno putting himself out of position. In the diagram above, we see (1) Figueiredo draw out the long hook with a feinted jab and step in. When Moreno goes to throw the wide strike, Figueiredo would (2) smash the leg. He did this several times in the fight and chewed up the legs of the fast Mexican champion.

In fact, slowing Moreno down was the key to Figueiredo getting his title back. Normally a hectic fighter with a torrid pace, Figueiredo fought slow. He punished the legs to make his time in the pocket longer: sort of a calf-kick time dilation. With the leg of Moreno damaged, Figueiredo had more time in exchanges as Moreno couldn’t exit as fast.

Figueiredo also learned a thing or two from being finished in the second fight. There, Moreno had made sure to secure position with hooks before Figueiredo had a chance to create a scramble and escape. (1) Figueiredo found himself with a body lock on Moreno early in the first. Instead of getting involved in a wild scramble, Figueiredo concentrated on keeping position and maintaining dominant control. (2) Moreno would eventually make a mistake, lifting up his knee, and Figueiredo would capitalize and (3) drag Moreno down and around to the mat.

The new, patient Figueiredo would also be trickier than he has been in the past. He would anticipate shots coming from Moreno and draw them out. Then he would either land a couple blows in the pocket, being sure not to get too greedy, or get the low kick, further impacting the mobility of Moreno. By the end of the fight, Figueiredo had Moreno eating out of the palm of his hand and any small feint would draw something out.

In our final diagram, we see just that. (1) Figueiredo steps in, pumps the jab and knows Moreno is coming in with a big left. (2) On that left, Figueiredo slips his head to the outside and lands a left hook of his own. With Moreno accustomed to Figueiredo being greedy, (3) Moreno would swing wide and miss by a country mile. These bad looks are what separated the two fighters in the third fight and what gave Figueiredo the win.

So now we’re back to the question. But this time it swings back to Moreno. My one burning question for UFC 283: Will Moreno be able to get to the body and take the fourth fight? The Kai Kara-France fight seems like it could be within the realm of possibility. But the only way to find out is to put the two in a cage and let them fight. Fourth time’s the charm, right?