Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Machida vs. Dollaway’

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BANTAMWEIGHTS

Renan Barao (32-2, 7-1 UFC) vs. Mitch Gagnon (12-2, 4-1 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Former bantamweight champion Barao returns to action after losing his title to T.J. Dillashaw and an unfortunate weight-cutting mishap cost him his shot at a rematch in August. Prior to that loss, Barao had strung together a 33-fight unbeaten streak with wins over some of the best 135ers on the planet. Gagnon has flown under the radar despite a four-fight winning streak and gets a big chance to step up in competition here.

Barao is a slick, athletic and fully three-dimensional fighter who can strike, wrestle and grapple with equal skill. He puts together mechanically sound punching combinations moving both forward and backward and works behind a crisp jab. Barao could stand to do a better job of hiding his kicks behind feints and punches, but they are powerful, rangy and generally well-timed. His game is full of crafty wrinkles: If his opponent gets too comfortable circling away from his power hand, Barao will throw a lightning-quick spinning kick to catch him as he moves, and he likes to finish combinations with stepping knees and uppercuts to deter opponents who want to duck under his strikes and shoot a takedown. His tendency to plant his feet and throw bombs when pressured cost him dearly against Dillashaw, who simply took angles and ducked away from the counter shots; however, generally it is an effective deterrent against aggressive opponents. Barao’s defensive wrestling is some of the best in the history of MMA, and he owns a nice array of trips and throws in the clinch to go along with more traditional shot takedowns. On the mat, Barao flashes a suffocating and dangerous top game with a preference for athletic guard passes and a lethal arm-triangle to go along with almost unbelievable quickness and technical skill in scrambles.

Do not be fooled by the fact that 11 of Gagnon’s 12 wins have come by submission: The Canadian is a tough and surprisingly well-rounded fighter with plus skills in every department. Despite all of those tapouts on his record, Gagnon is less a traditional takedown, pass, mount and submission type of fighter than someone who tends to find fight-ending offense in transition. He creates scrambles with his adept, powerful wrestling game -- he prefers quick doubles and singles -- and as his opponents attempt to stand, Gagnon reaches for a guillotine or transitions to the back for a rear-naked choke. The Canadian is hardly helpless on the feet. Mostly a boxer, Gagnon whips slick head-body punching combinations at a quick pace and has a particularly nasty left hook to the liver that he uses frequently. He counters nicely and packs some legitimate power in his hands.

THE PICK: While I am high on Gagnon’s skills and think he is being underrated in a general sense, this is a tough matchup for him. His wheelhouse -- scrambles on the ground -- happens to be a phase where Barao is one of the fastest and most technically sound in the world. Remember his back-take on Brad Pickett? While Gagnon might be able to do yeoman’s work at punching range on the somewhat hittable Barao, the Brazilian is hardly a novice striker, and his longer limbs and slick kicking game give him a substantial advantage in effective range. I think Barao will land good shots at distance, force Gagnon into taking a sloppy takedown attempt and counter with a transition to the back and rear-naked choke. Barao by submission in the second round is the pick.

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