Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Machida vs. Romero’

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WELTERWEIGHTS

Santiago Ponzinibbio (19-2, 2-1 UFC) vs. Lorenz Larkin (15-4, 2-4 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: This is an excellent fight between welterweights whose undeniable talent has yet to propel them into the division’s elite. Argentina’s Ponzinibbio was slated to be a finalist on the second season of “The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil,” but a broken hand forced him out of the finale, and he dropped his debut to Ryan LaFlare before getting back on track with a pair of wins. A brutal three-fight losing streak left Larkin on the cusp of a release from the UFC, but a knockout win over John Howard in January bought him some breathing room.

Ponzinibbio is a big, strong and aggressive power puncher whose game revolves around pressure. He is at his best moving forward, slipping his head off the centerline and firing straight right-left hook combinations as he pushes his opponents toward the fence. Once he backs them up to the cage, Ponzinibbio unloads brutal headhunting combinations and slips in a sneaky right high kick behind his cross as opponents circle out.

Defensive wrestling is a strong suit for the Argentinian, and he can hit clean double-legs of his own as a change of pace, particularly against the fence. If taken down, Ponzinibbio excels at hipping out and scrambling back to his feet, but if his scrambling game is shut down, he offers little from the bottom. On top, he drops powerful ground strikes, passes nicely and can hit the occasional submission in transition.

Larkin’s physical tools and striking acumen have never truly been in doubt, but his ability to consistently fight up to his talent has been. He is incredibly fast and packs brutal force in his punches and especially his kicks, owns impeccable timing and sense of the distance and can operate both moving forward and off the back foot with equal skill. The problem is output: Larkin has effectively given away several fights simply through lack of activity, and he consistently looks for the perfect shot instead of simply taking a good one when the opportunity arises. He is an excellent clinch fighter, with strong knees and sharp elbows, but is too often content to let himself get pushed against the cage. Offensive wrestling is not Larkin’s game -- he has shot for only three takedowns in UFC and Strikeforce competition -- but he has excellent takedown defense; on the mat, he is essentially limited to scrambling back to his feet.

BETTING ODDS: Larkin (-220), Ponzinibbio (+180)

THE PICK: This is a much closer matchup than the betting odds suggest. Ponzinibbio is pathologically aggressive and surprisingly savvy at corralling opponents who want to be out in the middle of the cage, and Larkin is quite hittable with his back to the fence. While Larkin is the faster and more diverse striker, I think he will get himself into trouble by repeatedly backing up and giving Ponzinibbio opportunities to land. The pick is Ponzinibbio by decision.

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