Preview: UFC 311 ‘Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2’

After a surprisingly fun show at the UFC Apex a week ago, the Ultimate Fighting Championship kicks off 2025 in earnest with UFC 311—a fairly excellent pay-per-view this Saturday at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California. Two championship bouts that rank among the best matchups the promotion can put together at the moment anchor the UFC’s first trip to The House That Steve Ballmer Built. Islam Makhachev defends his lightweight title against Arman Tsarukyan in a rematch half a decade in the making, while bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili gets what might be his toughest test on paper against Umar Nurmagomedov. Beyond that, there’s a strong combination of potential entertainment and high stakes. Former light heavyweight titleholders Jiri Prochazka and Jamahal Hill collide in an intriguing clash; Beneil Dariush meets Renato “Money” Moicano in a well-matched lightweight showcase; and a middleweight appetizer pitting Kevin Holland against Reinier de Ridder should be just plain weird.

Now to the UFC 311 “Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan” preview:

UFC Lightweight Championship

#1 P4P | Islam Makhachev (26-1, 15-1 UFC) vs. #1 LW | Arman Tsarukyan (22-3, 9-2 UFC)

ODDS: Makhachev (-395), Tsarukyan (+310)

Tsarukyan gave Makhachev one of the toughest tests of his career at one point, and now he tries to do so again, this time with championship stakes. Makhachev had an interesting rise through the ranks, at least in terms of narrative. A close friend and training partner of Khabib Nurmagomedov, Makhachev was also considered an elite prospect, although a shocker of a knockout loss to Adriano Martins early in his UFC career meant that the Russian was coming up behind his mentor as a potential champion rather than alongside him. As Nurmagomedov eventually found championship glory and success as an all-time great, Makhachev mostly tread water as the eventual next man up, putting together impressive performances without moving up the card much—a stretch during which his worst performance came against Tsarukyan, who was the rare fighter able to hold his own with him as a wrestler. Once Nurmagomedov surprisingly retired in 2020, the UFC clearly and quickly pivoted to Makhachev as its next potential star in the region, as he finally got some big fights and the chance to move up the ladder. To his credit, Makhachev was the rare fighter who raised his game with every step, becoming a more diverse striker and a much sharper finishing threat on the ground. Once Makhachev won the lightweight title against Charles Oliveira in one-sided fashion near the end of 2022, he looked every bit the elite fighter as Nurmagomedov, with a small spin on the formula. Without the elite athleticism that allowed Nurmagomedov to consistently force opponents into one particular style of fight, Makhachev built a much more technically sound and well-rounded game out of the same base. That became apparent in his first title defense, an all-timer against Alexander Volkanovski that set a new standard for the sport, though it did get forgotten a bit after the two rematched a few months later. It was thrown together on short notice and resulted in a quick knockout win for Makhachev, making the narrative more about Volkanovski’s potential downfall than the excellence of their first encounter. At any rate, that backdrop made Makhachev’s next title defense against Dustin Poirier seem like an afterthought. The clear top choice for the contender spot was Tsarukyan. However, with Tsarukyan recovering from a recent fight against Oliveira, Poirier was the next best option for the champion to stay busy. Instead, it turned into an absolute war that Makhachev finished about halfway through the fifth round. It was both a surprise that Poirier was able to shake off a lot of Makhachev’s takedown attempts and a testament to the champion's greatness that he managed to end things with an absolutely beautiful setup to a submission. The way that fight played out certainly should give some hope to Tsarukyan, who looks for some revenge half a decade in the making.

One look at Tsarukyan’s film ahead of his 2019 UFC debut showed him to be an elite prospect, but it was still a bit of a shock that he was thrown into the deep end against Makachev and capable of holding his own. After that performance, it was much less of a surprise when the Armenian literally hit the ground running for his subsequent winning streak, continuing to show out as an aggressive and diverse wrestler. Tsarukyan seemed to develop some defter striking over the years, which may have come back to bite him in his other UFC loss—a controversial split decision defeat to Mateusz Gamrot in a main-event slot back in 2022. Tsarukyan clearly seemed to be the more effective fighter, particularly on the feet, but tired while attempting to outmaneuver Gamrot’s own wrestling-heavy approach. As a result, he still saw Gamrot get the nod on the scorecards thanks to his aggression and control. Since then, Tsarukyan has gone back to what brought him to the dance as a much more straight-ahead fighter, for better or for worse. A 64-second knockout of Beneil Dariush to cap 2023 was the biggest individual statement of Tsarukyan’s career, but he repeatedly charged into danger against the submission threat of Oliveira, enough so that he nearly lost the decision that wound up earning him a rematch against Makhachev. Like the first fight, this won’t be an easy win for Makhachev—particularly with the Poirier fight raising the smallest of concerns—but there’s not much of a reason to pick against the champion at the moment, at least against any current lightweight on the roster. That includes Tsarukyan. If the wrestling winds up as a stalemate, Makhachev has rounded out his game enough to become the more comfortable fighter as the striker. While the Gamrot fight was mostly considered an undeserved loss for Tsarukyan, it’s also the lone five-round fight of the challenger’s career and did raise the worry that he might not quite have a championship-level gas tank in a fight as hard as this one appears to be. This should be excellent, no matter how it unfolds. The pick is Makhachev via decision.

Jump To »
Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan
Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedov
Hill vs. Prochazka
Moicano vs. Dariush
de Ridder vs. Holland
The Prelims